Those who look ahead will be able to position their companies to harness the trends they see.

© Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC

As we turn the calendar to a new year with lots of zeros, the media are filled with articles about the New Millennium.  In the months ahead we too will look at key global trends and their impacts on business.  Today we give brief summaries of several.

Population.  The global population quadrupled during the 20th Century, and on October 12th, 1999, the Secretary-General of the United Nations officially welcomed the world's 6 billionth citizen.  This century's spectacular population growth is slowing down: fewer people are added to the world each year than the year before.  This year it will be 78 million, 95% of whom will live in less developed countries.

The United Nations projects the world's population will stabilize in the late 22nd century at 10 billion.

Food. Food production has more than kept up with the population growth.  For five decades global food output has grown 0.5% per capita per year due to better seeds, fertilizers, and farming techniques.

We stand at the cusp of a biotechnology revolution in agriculture that promises to reduce further those without enough food.  750 million people in developing countries are undernourished, about 18% of their populations.  This compares with 941 million or 36% just three decades ago.  Progress has been made, but a single hungry child is one too many.

Health.  Advances in genetic mapping and biotechnology give new ways to treat and prevent disease.  The result is healthier lives for us and longer lives for our children.

Clean water and proper sewage disposal are key determinants of health.  As the world's economy grows, its public works infrastructure will contribute at least as much to improved health as biotechnology.

Economic well-being.  During the last half of the 20th Century, global economic output has risen by about 3% annually, a bit higher during the 1990's.   In the past two decades output per capita has doubled in real terms.  China, the world's most populous nation, saw its output per capita quintuple, the largest such increase in the history of the world.

Information.  In The Twilight of Sovereignty the former Citicorp CEO Walter Wriston laid out a thesis that information frees us and is an unstoppable force.  An ingot of iron can be divided: those who have it, possess only a piece of it.  Iron is a zero-sum game.  Information is the opposite: when given away, it multiplies.  Information is a positive-sum game.

The World Wide Web is transforming industries and lives by giving broad access to information that was once in the hands of a few.

e-Commerce.  Fueled by steady advances in computer technology and greater bandwidth, business on the Internet is growing at a breathtaking pace.  The University of Texas at Austin estimates that in 1999 the Internet economy will have surpassed the previous kingpin - the automotive industry - and contribute $500 billion to the American economy.

Goods and services sold over the Net in 1999 should be double 1998's $48 billion.  Forrester Research has projected this will hit $1.4 trillion by 2003, with 90% being business-to-business.

Energy.  Annual global energy usage is 375 exajoules and grows 1.5% per year. Asia is now the world’s largest energy producer and consumer.  With the greatest population and the highest economic growth rate, it will so forever more.  World oil production has been rather flat since the early 1970’s, in spite of many price gyrations.

One-third of human energy expenditure goes directly towards transport.  New forms of communication can eliminate many trips, but increased leisure time draws more people into travel.

Natural resources and commodities.  As the global economy uses natural resources, substitutes are found, and usage per capita diminishes.  Of two dozen key commodities, the majority sell at lower prices today than five years ago.

Even though the world no longer operates on a gold standard, the real value of gold is the same today as it was at the turn of the Century and during the Great Depression.  Over long periods of time, gold retains its value.  A corollary is that real things tend to relate to other real things in a relatively stable fashion over time.

What can you do?  Pay attention to global trends that impact your business.  This is easier said than done, because the relevant trends may not be obvious.  Entire industries have been turned upside down by developments outside of them.

In the book The Living Company, Arie de Geus, former head of planning for the Royal Dutch/Shell Group, contends that companies are living entities that can thrive for centuries if they focus on four issues:

Sensitivity to their environment - long-lived companies sample, learn, and adapt to what is going on around them.

Persona - they are cohesive and have a strong sense of identity based on the ability to build a shared community.

Tolerance - they are patient, generally decentralized, with widespread decision making authority, and tolerant of "non-core" activities on their periphery (which may become tomorrow's core).

Frugality - they are conservative with money, which they use to govern their own growth and to give them options.

As we approach the New Millennium, it is possible to have everyone on the face of the earth adequately fed, clothed, housed, educated, and given health care.  Your role as a corporate and community leader is to help make this happen.