The slowing of global population growth, the move to cities, and the aging of the workforces in developed countries provides both new opportunities and new responsibilities for businesses.

© Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC

Global population growth is gradually slowing due to a drop in fertility rates throughout the world.  The world entered the 20th Century with a population of 1.5 billion living souls.  Due to cleaner water, better sanitation, more food, and advances in medical care, we enter the 21st Century with six billion men, women, and children.

On October 12th, 1999, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan officially and symbolically welcomed newborn Adnan Navic of Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzogovina as the world's 6 billionth citizen.  The United Nations report The World at Six Billion released the same day gives a straightforward summary of the world's population over the past two millennia, as well as projections for the next two centuries.

The 20th Century's spectacular population growth is unique in human history and will not be repeated.  Contrary to media hype, the myth of an "exponential population growth" is exactly that, a myth!

Fertility rates have dropped around the world.  Only four countries - Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Ethiopia - have higher fertility rates today than in 1980, and the first three of these still are below the net replacement value of 2.1 children per woman.  The largest country in the world - China - has been below this value for more than a decade, principally due to its "one child" policy.

Fewer people are added to the world each year than the year before.  This year it will be 78 million, down from 86 million at the peak a dozen years ago.  95% of these will live in less developed countries.   Of course, population increase is merely the difference between births and deaths.  Interestingly, the number of births will remain relatively constant at 135 million per year for the next half century or more, whereas the number of deaths will rise steadily as the population gradually ages.

Slower population growth does not mean the population is shrinking.  The annual increase in population will continue to fall over the next two centuries.  The United Nations projects the global population will rise to 9.5 billion at the dawn of the 22nd Century and will stabilize at 10 billion just before entering the 23rd Century.

The following table, drawn from the UN report, illustrates the threshold points in global population:
 

Threshold population	Year achieved	Years to achieve
1 billion	1804	-
2 billion	1927	123
3 billion	1960	33
4 billion	1974	14
5 billion	1987	13
6 billion	1999	12
7 billion	2013	14
8 billion	2028	15
9 billion	2054	26
10 billion	2183	129

The Details

Continents.  Growth will not be uniform across the globe.  Asia will continue to be the largest, with about 60% of the world’s population, adding almost two billion people in the next century.  Latin America’s percentage will remain at 9%, while North America’s will drop from 5% to 4%, and Europe from 12% to 6% by 2100.

Africa's population will triple by 2100, and its share of the world’s population will rise from 12% to 22%.  Fifty years ago Africa’s population was 40% of Europe’s.  Today they are equal.  In 2100 Africa will be more than three times larger!  Africa’s growth would be even more were it not for AIDS.  In some countries more than 20% of the adult population has been infected with HIV.  AIDS will, in effect, lower each country's population growth rate by up to 1.3% and to lower its average life span by up to 25 years.

Countries.  China and India are far and away the two largest countries in the world today.  They will remain so, though India will surpass China in about 2040.  The United States is third largest now, but will fall to fifth in 100 years, behind Pakistan and Nigeria and just ahead of Indonesia and Ethiopia.

Cities.  Historically, as economies developed, people moved to the cities.  46% of the world’s people today live in urban areas.  By 2006 half will.  Indeed, in the next few decades, the entire net population growth will take place in urban areas!  Already, today 18 cities today exceed 10 million in population, most of which are in developing countries.

Aging.  During the past half century the average age has advanced from 23.5 years old to 26.4.  Over the next 50 years, this will continue to advance to 37.8.  By the middle of the 21st Century one-third of the citizens of developed countries will be 60 or over!

Workers.  The working age population will grow, remain flat, or shrink in different ways throughout the world and throughout the next century.  In Germany, Italy, and Japan, where populations are no longer growing, the workforces are already diminishing.  Britain’s and France’s will remain stable for about two decades before decreasing slowly.  The United States’ workforce will grow in the next two decades and remain stable for many decades thereafter.

The Ramifications

Threats face the world in many areas: poverty, lagging agricultural productivity, environmental degradation, and lack of water for agriculture and human health.

Opportunities abound in every sector.  The growth in senior citizens will fuel tourism, leisure activities, financial services, and medical care. Every nation needs education.  Asia and Latin America need to develop their infrastructures.  Africa needs it all: infrastructure; agricultural productivity; medical care; capital, consumer goods; monetary reform; and stable governments.

Six billion people inhabit this globe.  Many more will be here a century from now.  Their health and economic well-being depend crucially on sound planning and decision making now and in the future.  What role are you and your company playing in preparing the world for them?