Since
global trends affect every business, astute leaders pay attention
to them and position their companies accordingly.
As we begin the New Millennium, it
is useful to look both back in time and ahead.
My wife and I recently visited Italy
and marveled at what we saw. Venice’s canal system, Florence’s
magnificent cathedral dome, and Rome’s coliseum all spoke to
the technological prowess of earlier ages. We live in a technological
age, but so did people in the past. We experience change at
a blistering pace, but so did they.
Last year the National Academy of
Engineering highlighted the 20 greatest engineering achievements of
the 20th Century. These include: electrification, automobiles,
airplanes, water supply and distribution, electronics, radio and television
media, agricultural mechanization, computers, telephones, air conditioning
and refrigeration, highways, spacecraft, the Internet, imaging, household
appliances, health technologies, petroleum and petrochemical technologies,
laser and fiber optics, nuclear technologies, and high-performance
materials. These are now part of the fabric of everyday life.
What will be the great shapers of
the 21st Century? There are four technologies and three trends
that we should pay particular attention to.
Biotech. The breathtaking
scientific achievement of 2000 was the completion of the mapping of
the human genome. And this breakthrough was just the beginning.
In the next decade, we will correlate pieces of the genome’s
structure with various diseases. With this knowledge in hand,
researchers will be able to design drugs both to cure and to prevent
disease. We can look forward to an explosion of new drugs coming
into use in the second decade of the century.
Genetically modified foods, another
product of the biotech revolution, will grow in acceptance and lead
to an upsurge in nutrition and health of populations that are now
undernourished.
Computing. The computer
revolution has been underway for more than a quarter century, driven
by Moore’s Law, which states computing power doubles every 18
months. This inexorable increase means our children at our age
will have computers 100,000 times as powerful as those we use.
What will they do with them? Holographic imaging, neural net
decision models, distance medicine and surgery, and real-time language
translation only scratch the surface of this capability.
Nanotechnology. Nanotechnology
is to mechanical systems what the integrated circuit has been to electronic
systems. Nano devices will range from energy converters to optical
fiber switches to micro-miniature chemical reactors. Combined
with equally tiny computers, nanotech will transform how we build
and use household appliances, automobiles, medical equipment, and
gadgets of every kind imaginable.
Telecommunications.
Four powerful forces - regulatory reform, cross-border alliances,
emerging infrastructure, and technological advances - continue to
drive the explosive growth in bandwidth, the variety of communications
devices and services, and their ubiquity. Look for new Web-enabled
wireless devices (not just phones). The blockbuster acceptance
of NTT DoCoMo's Internet-enabled cell phones in Japan and their recent
investment in AT&T Wireless is a harbinger of corporate alliances
to come.
Economic growth. For
a half century, global economic output has risen about 3% annually;
4% during the last decade. Despite the economic turmoil
of a couple years ago, the fastest growing economies are Asian.
China and India will surpass Japan in economic power in the next decade,
which in turn will lead to restructuring many global political alliances.
e-Commerce. A year ago,
the e-Commerce revolution was fueled by the dot.com companies.
Today they seem to be dropping like flies. In their place, old-line
retailers are adapting technological tools to their businesses and
shifting their locus of growth into e-Commerce. Their trump
cards, of course, are well-defined products, marketing skills, existing
distribution channels, and, in most cases, profits. By 2004
the Internet economy will surpass health as the largest sector of
the American economy.
Population. The world
entered the 20th Century with a population of 1.5 billion. We
enter the 21st at gour times that size. The United Nations estimates
we will reach 9 billion in the middle of this century and stabilize
at 10 billion at the end of the 22nd.
Closer to home, the United States’
population will grow 25% in the next quarter century. Five states
- California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Washington - will account
for half of the total growth. Washington, Oregon, and California
will each grow by 45% in this timeframe.
As Baby Boomers age, there is an
increasing shortage of new workers. Today’s tight labor markets
will worsen every year for the next 25! Each state’s population
will grow 20-30% faster than its younger workforce.
What should you do? The
above trends will impact every business. Others may impact your
business more directly. Your task as CEO is to ensure your management
team is scanning the horizon and contemplating the potential impacts,
positive and negative, of the trends they see, especially those outside
your industry.
If you don’t have one already,
establish a trends tracking and analysis process or team. It
might be the difference between thriving and surviving.
As we enter this New Millennium,
use the opportunities these trends present to reshape your role in
your industry and to improve the well-being of all who inhabit this
earth of ours.
