The following article is adapted from Dr. van der Werff's presentation at the Society of Hispanic Professional Engineers' National Leadership Institute on July 28, 2000.

"What will life be like 100 years from now?"  A century ago that question was asked of 74 prominent Americans from all walks of life.  They wrote brief essays as publicity for the World's Columbian Exposition, held in Chicago in 1893.

Right on. Many of their predictions were right on.  Electrical power would be universal.  Democracy would triumph.  Every well-appointed household would have a 'telephote' (the name for the early version of television) in the parlor to bring sport and culture into the home.  Trade in North America would be free and in the world, almost free.

Way off.  Other predictions were way off.  We would live to be 150.  Mail delivery would be free.  No one would have a mortgage.  And the President of the United States would have little work to do and pay no attention to personnel matters!

These prognosticators missed two global wars, atomic bombs and atomic power, automobiles and airplanes, lasers, telecommunication satellites, radio, computers, and space travel.

Two lessons are clear.  The first is most long-term predictions are optimistic, yet people do not change their behavior very rapidly.  The second is technology, which by definition one cannot foresee, generates the most profound changes in our lives.

21st Century Work and the Workplace

The 21st Century will see greater changes than in any century that has gone before.   The hierarchical business model developed early in the 20th Century served us well in producing products based on raw materials in factories for stable, national markets.  It will not suffice in the 21st Century in delivering services based on ideas and information for rapidly changing, global markets.

The concept of work itself is changing.  It’s about learning, not about producing.  Younger generations see employability as more important than employment.  Their focus is on transferable skills that can be used in many settings, rather than on a career.

Four characteristics shape how we will work in the 21st Century:

Personal accountability.  Whether we provide a service, a product, or a mixture of the two, we will be held accountable, with more emphasis on results than on ways we achieve them.

Self-organizing teams.  We will form our own team with the knowledge, skills, and capabilities to deliver the needed results.  Our team will change seamlessly as the work shifts.

Virtual structure.  We are as likely to be separated from our colleagues as to sit next to them.  The growing ranks of telecommuters and other home office professionals magnify this trend.  The concept of a company headquarters itself will be obsolete.

Technological richness.  The avalanche of new technology will continue to roll, creating as yet unknown successors to the technologies - computers, faxes, cell phones, the Internet - that have made such an impact on our lives in recent years.

The first two characteristics underscore the importance for younger workers to acquire project management skills.  The last two imply that “my laptop is my office!”

21st Century Population

We entered the 20th Century with 1.5 billion souls.  On October 12th, 1999, global population reached six billion.  We will exit the 21st Century with 9.5 billion.  In the next 100 years, India will surpass China in population, Africa will triple in size, the United States will double, and both Europe and Japan will shrink.

America’s population will grow 25% in the next 25 years, with immigration generating one-third of this growth.  Five states - California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Washington - will account for half of the total increase.

Our population will age.  One in eight U.S. residents today is 65 or older.  By 2020 this will be one in six, as the first Baby Boomers reach senior citizen status.  By 2030 senior citizens will surpass youngsters (high school and below) in number.

Our population will diversify.  By 2005 Hispanics will be the largest minority.  By 2050 the United States itself will be a “majority minority” nation.  A half dozen states already are.

There is a growing shortage of younger workers.  In 2020 there will be fewer of them than today!  By then the number of older workers will equal younger workers, altering dramatically the dynamics of the workplace.

21st Century Technologies

We live in a technological age, and the future will be more so.

Technology has been the major force in creating new industries, generating jobs, and raising standards of living.  However, each technological revolution creates more change in a shorter timeframe.  This can be both unsettling and stressful.

Let’s look at the emerging technologies that will shape the next quarter century.

Biotechnology. The fruits of biotechnology are sweeping over us like a tsunami.  It is a revolution more profound, far reaching, and quicker than we experienced with automation and computers.  In June, 2000, the DNA code of the human genome - the “book of life” - was mapped, a breathtaking scientific breakthrough.

Each year, a steady stream of biotech drugs aimed at maladies of the middle aged and elderly - cancer, osteoporosis, arthritis, and the like - receives FDA approval.  The effect of these drugs will be healthier lives for us.  For our grandchildren it will mean both healthier and longer lives, as they will have access to preventive medicines, as well as curative ones.

Computers.  Moore’s Law says computing power doubles every 18 months.  It has held for the past 50 years and will persist as far as we can see into the future.  In 6-8 years we will have holographic imaging sophisticated enough to “send people” to other places.  Automated 3-D software packages will reduce the need for design engineers by 80% by 2005.  Computers will increasingly make decisions in every sphere of home and work.  Knowledge management will be crucial to business success.

Telecommunications.  Four powerful forces have converged to alter the global telecommunications landscape: regulatory reform; cross border alliances; emerging infrastructure; and inexorable technological advances.  The path of telecom’s future is dictated by our insatiable desire for information and for connecting with anyone, anywhere, anytime, for any purpose.

By 2002 there will be multiple satellite systems in operation.  By 2003 phone calls will effectively be free, in the same way e-mail is “free” today.  By 2005 the majority of calls will be transmitted on the Internet.  Already, more data than voice travels over the wires and by wireless.

Nanotechnology.  Nano is a Greek prefix used in the metric system.  It means really, really small.  Motors the size of mosquitoes.  Generators the size of pinheads.  Gears so small you need a microscope to see them.  It is merely a matter of time and engineering before they are found in our appliances, cars, pockets, and purses, doing things we can hardly imagine in a very space-efficient, energy-efficient, and materials-efficient manner.

21st Century Business Realities

For 50 years, the world’s economy has grown 3% a year.  Trade has grown twice as fast.  In 1999 this represented $30 trillion in economic output and over $7 trillion in trade.

These growth rates are likely to continue for the next 50 years, with the Pacific Rim nations growing more rapidly than the rest of the world.  China and India are not only the two most populous nations, but they are the fastest growing economically as well.  Already, India has the world’s largest middle class.

Standards of living.  Globalization will bind countries together.  Trade will flourish.  Incomes and standards of living will rise, especially in parts of the world that did not fully participate in the past half century of economic growth.

Water will take on the importance in the 21st Century that oil exhibited throughout the 20th.

e-Commerce.  A direct result of the computer revolution and new business realities is the explosion of commerce conducted on the Internet.

The University of Texas estimated 60% of the United States’ GDP growth in 1999 was due to the Internet ($200 billion of $340 billion).  Adding together infrastructure (fiber optic cables, routers, servers), software applications, and commercial activity, the Internet economy in the United States is already larger than telecommunications, airlines, or energy!

UT estimated that $176 billion in e-Commerce was conducted in 1999.  Two-thirds of this was B-to-B, e.g. Cisco selling a router to AT&T, and one-third was B-to-C, e.g. amazon.com selling a book to you.  Consensus estimates from research firms are $1.4 trillion in e-Commerce will be conducted by 2003.  Of this, 90% will be B-to-B and only 10% B-to-C.

Implications for the future

With these and so many other trends, what can we count on?  In a single word, change!  Change will be our constant companion as we journey into the future.  It is the constant that bridges the generations.

Those with a technological background who think globally, move easily in many cultures, and use business to serve humanity are those who will lead us into a dynamic future.  It seems to me that the younger members, especially of the Society of Hispanic Professional Engineers, fit this description well!

The future will never be quite what we think.  But if we focus on the future and pay attention to the dominant trends affecting us all, we can harness these trends for good purposes - for ourselves, our communities, and our world.