As the population of our nation and our state changes dramatically over the next quarter century, businesses will face new and exciting work-place challenges.

© Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC

There are surprises galore in the U.S. Census Bureau's recent projections of State populations until 2020.

Only three states - California, Texas, and Florida - will add more people than Washington between now and the Year 2020.  Washington will grow 51%, from 5.3 million today to 7,960,000 in 2020.  This growth rate is twice that of the U.S. which will grow from 258 million to 326 million.

In 2020 the largest state will be California, followed by Texas, Florida, and New York.  Washington will be 13th largest.

Racial and Ethnic Makeup.  The Census Bureau breaks the population into four racial classifications: White; Black; Asian and Pacific Islander; and American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut.  (Hispanics are an “ethnic” group and may be of any race: most are White.)

Hispanics will overtake Blacks as the dominant minority within the United States during the next quarter century.  In 2020 Hispanics will be 15.7% of the population and Blacks 13.9%, compared with today's 9.7% and 12.5%, respectively.  Asia Americans will grow from 3.4% to 7.0%, and American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleuts from 0.84% to 0.95%.

One-One-Two-One.  A dramatic picture emerges when one looks at net additions to the population.  Nationwide, one in five will be Black, one will be Asian, two will be Hispanic, and only one will be non-Hispanic White!

The Black and American Indian populations will grow twice as fast as the White population; the Hispanic population will grow four times as fast; and the Asian population will grow an incredible five and a half times as fast.

Washington State does not mimic the nation's population makeup.  We have more Whites, fewer Blacks, more American Indians, more Asians, and fewer Hispanics in our makeup.  Every population group, except Blacks, is growing faster in Washington than the rest of the country.  The Asian community will triple in size by 2020!

Age Groups.  The United States is aging.  One in eight U.S. residents today is 65 or older.  By 2020 this will be one in six.  The elderly will double in eight states, including Washington whose senior citizen population will grow from today's 607,000 to 1,244,000.

The elderly population will continue to grow rapidly in the decade after 2020 as the final Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) reach senior citizen status.

The nation's preschoolers will grow by only 11%, from today's 19.9 million to 2020’s 22.0 million.  Washington's preschoolers will grow by 30%, from 400,000 to 518,000.

Immigrants.  Each year slightly more than one million people immigrate to the United States, generating a third of the population growth.  In the early Twentieth Century 85% of the immigrants came from Europe.  Today two-thirds come from Latin American (43%) or Asia (25%).

Workforce Makeup.  The workforce is changing more rapidly than the population as a whole.  Only 15% of new American workers today are White males.  42% are White women; 20% are non-White men and women; and 22% are immigrant men and women.

Social implications.  People are our lifeblood.  They are our families; our communities; our colleagues and customers.  They both generate and purchase our products and services.  They create our culture and history.

The implications of changes in the population are enormous.  Our schools, health services, and social safety nets will be strained, if not frayed, as the population grows in size and changes in composition.

All racial and ethnic groups are younger than the White population. The elderly proportion of their population is half that of Whites.  Will an increasingly “minority” workforce willingly support an increasingly White senior citizenry when the accumulated reserves in the Social Security system are projected to be exhausted?

The racial and ethnic makeup of students will differ from teachers. The elderly population change will be twice that of school children.  Do we invest in nursing homes for the White elderly or in schools for non-White children?

Who will decide?

What does this mean for business?  The implications for business are profound.  Special efforts will be required to embrace and prosper from workforce diversity.  Markets will be increasingly segmented.

Creative incentives will be necessary to keep skilled and valued employees beyond normal retirement age, in the face of downsizing, regulatory costs, and rising health care burdens.

With a smaller proportion of the population in the workforce, there must be continual emphasis on increasing productivity - to substitute technology for labor, to keep costs in line, and to maintain one's competitive position.