By the end of the 21st Century the population of the world will double, from today's 5.7 billion to 11.0 billion.

© Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC

Contrary to popular belief, the world's population is not increasing exponen-tially.  Indeed, the growth rate has fallen steadily since the late 1960’s and is now about 1.5% annually.  The annual population increase peaked in the late 1980’s and has declined to 85 million/year (still a pretty sizable number!).  The increase will drop to 58 million/year in the second quarter of the next century and to 19 million/year by its end.

Of course, population increase is merely the difference between births and deaths.  Interestingly, the number of births is expected to remain relatively constant at 135 million/year for the next four decades or more, whereas the number of deaths will rise steadily from the present 50 million/year.

Asia Grows, Europe Shrinks.  Growth will not be uniform across the globe.  Asia will continue to be the largest, with 60% of the world's population.  Asia alone will add almost 3 billion people in the next century.  Latin America's percentage will remain constant at 8%, while North America's will drop from 5% today to 3% at the Year 2100.

Europe's population will actually shrink in the next 100 years: its percentage of the world's population will fall from 13% now to 6%.  Japan too will shrink.

Africa will experience spectacular growth.  Between now and 2100 its population will quadruple, and its percentage of the world's population will double from 13% to 25%.  Only 45 years ago Africa's population was 40% of Europe's.  Today they are equal.  In 2100 Africa will be four times larger!

Africa is potentially a time bomb.  Its huge population growth will occur alongside the world's lowest standard of living, greatest poverty, highest illiteracy, poorest infrastructure, least industry, and shakiest history of stable governments.

India Will Be Most Populous.  China and India are far and away the two largest countries in the world today.  They will remain so, though India will surpass China in about 2040.  The United States is third largest now, but will fall to fifth in 100 years, behind Pakistan and Nigeria and just ahead of Indonesia and Ethiopia.

Ten countries today have populations of more than 100 million.  In the 21st Century, thirteen more will join them.

Urban Growth.  Historically, as economies developed, people moved to the cities.  46% of the world's people now live in urban areas.  In the next three decades the entire net population growth (some 2.4 billion people) will take place in urban areas!

Seventeen cities today exceed 10 million in population.  By the turn of the century, only five years away, ten will exceed 15 million.  Six of these ten will be in Asia, and three in Latin America.  New York City is the tenth.

More Senior Citizens.  There are a lot of teenagers today, about 735 million.  Their number will grow to 900 million by 2025, but little thereafter.

Senior citizens will quadruple by the Year 2100!  Teenagers outnumber them 2:1 today, but by 2030 the ratio will be 1:1.  At the end of the 21st Century the ratio will be 3:1 in the senior citizens’ favor.

Work forces Will Vary.  The working age population will grow, remain flat, or shrink in different ways throughout the world and throughout the next century.

In Europe and Japan, whose populations are no longer growing, the workforce will diminish. Germany's will decrease by 40% by the Year 2050; Italy's by 30%; and Japan's by 20%.  Britain's and France's will remain stable for about two decades before decreasing slowly.  The United States’ workforce will grow 20% in the next two decades and remain stable for many decades thereafter.

In these countries and others, those dependent upon workers, especially children and the elderly, will continue to grow.  Generational conflicts on public policies will erupt, of the type we are already experiencing in the Medicare debate.

Threats and Opportunities.  Population growth will create both threats and opportunities.  Threats come from poverty, agriculture perhaps not sustaining its productivity growth of recent decades, environmental degradation, and availability of water for both agriculture and human health.

Opportunities abound in every sector.  Teenagers are always on the cutting edge of culture, and there will be a lot of them.  The phenomenal growth in senior citizens will fuel tourism, leisure activities, financial services, and medical care.  Asia and Latin America present opportunities in developing their capital goods infrastructure.  Africa needs it all: infrastructures to sustain its population - transport, communications, agriculture, capital and consumer goods - as well as stable governments.  Every nation will need education at every level.

Many people inhabit this globe.  Many more will be here a century from now.  Their health and economic well-being depend crucially on sound planning and decision making both now and in the future.  So too for your own business!

 

Sign up for e-mail alerts to new postings.