In the next quarter century the population of United States will change dramatically.

© Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC

Profound demographic changes are occurring in America.  By the year 2020, our population will be 326,000,000, an increase of 24%.  Hispanics will surpass Blacks as the largest minority.  Native Americans will double in number.  The Asian population will grow fastest in all regions of the country.

Four states alone - California, Texas, Florida and Washington - will account for 48% of the net population increase in the United States.  The next four - Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and Arizona - will account for 12% more.  All eight states are on the “periphery;” only Washington is in the North.

Regional.  Growth during the next quarter century will not be uniform across the country.  East of the Mississippi River, where 60% of Americans now live, population growth will be about 16%.  America's Heartland, from the Mississippi to the Rockies, will grow at about the national average (24%).  The West will grow 44%.  Washington's population will surge by 45%, Oregon's by 39%, Idaho's by 38%, and California's by 48%.

Youngsters and Seniors.  With Baby Boomers starting to reach retirement age in 2010, the elderly population will explode, particularly in the West and South.  Today only Florida counts 16% of its citizens as seniors.  By 2020, two-thirds of the states will.  Eight states, including Washington, will double their senior citizenry by 2020.

On the other end of the age spectrum, the young will grow, but not a lot.  The preschool segment will shrink nationally in the next decade before heading upwards as the Baby Boom Echo's Echo kicks in.  The K-12 cohort will grow only 15% over the next 25 years, with two-thirds of that growth occurring in the next decade.  In Washington preschoolers will grow 26% and the K-12 cohort 30%, faster than the nation, but slower than our state's total population.

Biggest Surprise of All.  The 25-44 year old portion of our working age population will shrink.  The 45-54 year old group will grow 29%, whereas the 55-64 year old group will double in size.  The swelling of this latter group, of course, represents the last of the Baby Boomers in the workforce.  Overall, America's workforce will grow by 21%, slightly less than the total population.

Due to massive in-migration to Washington from other states, a different picture emerges.  Our 25-44 year old group will grow, but only by 16%.  The 45-54 year old group will grow 46%, and the 55-64 year old group 155%!

As dire as this may appear for later decades in the 21st Century, at least the American workforce is growing.  Compare this to Germany, Italy, and Japan, all of whose workforce numbers are already in decline.

Immigration.  The United States is rightly known as the Nation of Immigrants: fewer than 1% of today's inhabitants are Native American.

The United States is the #1 legal immigration “magnet” in the world, accounting for roughly one-third of our annual population increase. In contrast to the immigrants in the first decade of this century who were 92% European, those in this last decade are 83% Latin American and Asian and only 13% European.

Washington is the 8th most popular destination state for immigrants.  It is the 2nd most popular for in-migration from other states.  In-migration is a factor perhaps twice as great as immigration in our state's population growth.

Diversity.  The racial makeup of the United States today is 82.9% White, 12.6% Black, 3.7% Asian, and 0.8% Native American.  Hispanics, who can be of any racial group, represent 10.2% of the population.

During the next quarter century diversity changes will be dramatic.  20% of the net population change will be Black, 21% Asian, and 39% Hispanic, who will surpass Blacks as the largest minority by the year 2015.  By 2025 Hispanics will account for 15.7% of the US’s total population, compared to 13.9% Black, and 7.0% Asian.

In Washington State, Asians are already the largest minority with 5.8% of the population, compared to 5.3% Hispanic, 3.0% Black, and 1.8% Native American.  By 2025 our population will be 10.8% Asian, 8.9% Hispanic, 2.6% Black, and 1.9% Native American.

What Should You Do?  If you haven't done so already, put together a small team to review the impact of these incredible demographic changes on your company.  What will be the effect on your markets?  If you target babies and preschoolers, how will you thrive as this age group shrinks in the next decade?  Does your company have the capacity to accommodate the doubling of the senior citizen market?  If your products appeal to ethnic groups, does your planning account for their growth patterns?

Where will you get your new workers from?  What will your organizational structure look like when you have as many older workers as young ones?  Your training, development, and mentoring programs?  Your corporate culture?

How will society balance the modest needs of our young for more schools and the exploding needs of our seniors for more health care with a slowly growing workforce?  How will we provide dignified retirement support to our seniors when the Social Security Trust Fund is projected to be bankrupt?  Will our need for new workers force a radical revision of our immigration laws?

The choices won't be easy, but the issues are real.  The decisions are yours.  You had better plan for them.

 

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