Pay attention to broad
trends that will affect the future of your business.
The recent stock market turbulence and Asian economic
turmoil raise many questions about the future in the minds of many.
Where are we heading? What markets should we enter, or leave?
What trends should we pay attention to?
As a business futurist specializing in strategy,
I track long-term trends relevant to corporate leaders as part of my
daily focus. Let me share some of my thoughts on a few dominant
trends that lie ahead in 1999 and beyond that will impact us all.
Population. America’s population will
grow 25% in the next 25 years. Washington will grow 45%.
Four states - California, Texas, Florida, and Washington - will account
for half of the total growth.
By 2020 one in six Americans will be senior citizens,
and the Social Security Trust Fund will pay out more than it takes in.
We will become even more diverse. In the next
quarter century, Hispanics will overtake Blacks as the largest minority.
Black, Asian, Hispanic, and Native American populations will all grow
faster than the non-Hispanic White population. By 2050 we will
be a “majority minority” country. Markets will be
increasingly segmented along age and ethnic lines.
Workforce. There will be a growing
shortage of younger workers for the next quarter century. Every
state in the Union, including Washington, will grow 20-30% faster than
the number of its younger workers. By 2020, as many workers will
be in the last decade of their careers as in their first.
Business and trade. Asian contagion
will subside, and the world’s economy will grow 3% per year for
the next two decades. Trade will grow 6% per year. Growth
in the Pacific Rim will exceed that in the rest of the world.
Small business will create most new jobs, and technology will drive
economic growth.
Globalization will accelerate. Supply chains,
product design, financing, risk management, and support services will
be global. Cross-border mergers will proliferate. The introduction
of the Euro in 1999 will have a positive effect on the European economy,
which is comparable in size to America’s.
Women will continue to launch more companies than
men. By 2005 they will own half of small businesses and 40% of
all American companies. The number of women executives and board
members will continue to rise.
By 2002, one-half of Americans will work from home.
The SOHO workforce (full-time or part-time business owners, those using
their homes as a second office, and telecommuters) is growing five times
faster than the total workforce.
Technology. The human race is embarking on
something it has never experienced before: the overlapping of two technological
revolutions – biotechnology and computers – with others
in the wings.
More biotech drugs will be approved for use in 1999
than in any previous year. Half of the biotech drugs in clinical trials
focus on cancer; the rest mostly on arthritis, osteoporosis, and multiple
sclerosis. In the short term, their use will raise the health
of our older population. In the long-term, our grandchildren will
live longer.
Biotech revolutions in the animal and plant worlds
will garner more attention as they gain more widespread use.
Computer advances will continue apace. Our
children at our age will each have more computing power on their desks
than all of Silicon Valley today. What will they do with it?
Real-time translation. Image processing. Real-time control
of distant experiments. Holographic imaging. Decision modelling.
Surgery at a distance. The mind boggles!
The severest test we face in 1999 is Y2K.
On January 1, 2000, many computers will think it is 1900, causing massive
repercussions. Even if our own systems are safe, those in our
supply chain may not be.
Four powerful forces are altering the global telecommunications
landscape and revolutionizing how we acquire, transform, and communicate
information with one another: (1) regulatory reform; (2) cross-border
alliances; (3) emerging infrastructure; and (4) technological advances.
Several ambitious satellite systems will become
operational before 2002 and provide new global telecommunications infrastructures.
Data transfer will vastly eclipse voice, making
the latter a commodity on the Internet. Effectively, phone conversations
will be free.
Motors the size of mosquitoes. Generators
the size of pin heads. Gears so small you need a microscope to
see them. Such nanotechnology devices will be ubiquitous by 2010,
quietly working in an information-rich, space-efficient, energy-efficient,
materials-efficient, environmental-friendly manner. Uses include
optical fiber switches, energy converters, noninvasive inspection, chemical
reactors, and point therapeutics in medicine.
Politics. Business and economic development
are inextricably linked to politics, especially in the global arena.
Customs, culture, and law impact what you do. Corporate leaders
must pay attention to developments in countries that represent their
marketplace. Countries that bear watching include Russia, Indonesia,
Brazil, and Japan in the near term, and China, India, Mexico, and South
Africa in the longer term.
Setting up internal systems to track, analyze, and
strategize about these and other trends relevant to your company just
might make the difference between merely surviving and truly thriving.
