Technology Moves!
© Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC

Even technological gurus have difficulty anticipating the advent of new technology.  If you think technology is moving fast, you're right!

In every presentation, I highlight several emerging technologies and relate them to the group sitting before me.  Frequently I put up a slide of ten technologies singled out by Battelle Memorial Institute of Columbus, OH, which first appeared in an article by Battelle's CEO Douglas Olesen in the September-October, 1995, issue of The Futurist.

This Top Ten list of strategic technologies for 2005, was based on three criteria. They must:

	Provide benefits to the end user. In other words, "Will someone buy it?"
	Give a protected and sustainable competitive advantage, in such areas as quality, uniqueness, or price.
	Support the company's business goals.

The Top Ten in priority order were:

	Genetic mapping - Mapping of the human genome for genetic-based personal identification and diagnostics will allow researchers to look for ways to treat diseases before they occur.
	Super materials - Computer-based design and manufacturing of new materials at the molecular level to create new, high-performance materials.
	High density energy sources - Especially for mobile use, from fuel cells for electric cars to and long-lasting batteries for cell phones.
	Digital high definition television - So clear it rivals film. DHDT will lead to better computer images for advanced computer modeling and imaging and induce the movie industry to shoot in digital, not on film.
	Miniaturized personal electronics - Interactive units not much bigger than credit cards can serve as a fax, telephone, and computer with a hard drive capable of storing all the volumes in your local library.
	Smart manufacturing - Cost-effective systems that integrate power, sensors, and controls.
	Anti-aging products & services - Products and services to make aging a more pleasant experience, ranging from genetic code manipulation to anit-aging creams that work.
	Localized medical treatments &  targeted drug delivery - Highly accurate sensors and drug delivery systems that target specific diseases in predetermined parts of the body.
	Hybrid fuel vehicles - Cars that run on both gasoline and solar power.
	Edutainment - When education converges with entertainment, you have edutainment.  If you say "Sesame Street" in answer to "Who taught your child to read?" you already know what edutainment is.

Why bring up a four-year old list today?  For the simple reason that most of these are in commercial use, six years ahead of schedule.  Technology moves fast, and even technologically astute forecasters invariably overestimate the time it takes to commercialize new technology.  In addition, they invariably underestimate the impact of the new technology.

Each year Battelle has published a new Top Ten list, with different criteria for inclusion.  For example, 1998's list focussed on technologies for the household, such as disappearing cords and self-cleaning carpets.  It's worth your time to visit to Battelle's Web site.