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June
15th, 1998
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Once a decade, an epoch-making book comes along which radically changes our way of looking at the world and, consequently, dramatically affects our behavior and institutions. Such books as Marx and Engels's Das Kapital, Hitler's Mein Kampf, or Keynes's The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money fall into this category. So too does The Limits to Growth, published in 1972 by the Club of Rome. This study looked at five factors affecting human society: industrialization, population, food production, natural resources, and pollution. It particularly stressed the consequences of ultimately limited resources being consumed at an exponential rate. The study's first, much discussed conclusion was that if (then) present growth trends continued, the limits to growth on this earth will be reached in the middle of the Twenty-first Century, followed by a dramatic, uncontrollable collapse of population, food production, and all the other significant measures of a society's welfare. This is within the probable lifetime of today's children! The study's second, usually ignored conclusion was that it might be possible to establish a state of global equilibrium in which the basic needs of all are satisfied and in which each person has an equal opportunity to realize his or her individual human potential. Are we still heading towards that collapse? Have we continued to regress during this past quarter century? Or have we progressed? Somewhat surprisingly, in spite of considerable gloom and doom assailing us on every side by the news media, I believe we have progressed. Yes, in spite of the oil embargo, inflation, air pollution, recession, and the specter of nuclear annihilation, we have progressed. For one thing, we have had a quarter of relative peace. Yes, Afghanistan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, the Falklands, Bosnia, Chechnya, and Rwanda have certainly seen their share of armed conflict, but no global conflagration of the intensity of the World Wars has engulfed us. Nor has the nuclear button been pushed. Though recent developments in India and Pakistan may give us pause, we have gone more than a half century without a nuclear weapon being used in anger. How have we managed not only to survive but to progress. Quite simply, because we have drawn on the only inexhaustible resource. This "ultimate resource," in the words of Julian Simon in a book by that name, is the individual person. Humans, blessed with intellect, vision, creativity, and will, have within themselves the power to overcome limitations, subdue the earth, and make it better. Look at the population and food production as just one example. Since World War II, the world's population has grown at a compound rate of 2% per year. During that same time, the world's food production grew at almost 3% per year, i.e., faster than the population. The percapita food supply today is 40% higher than 30 years ago! This rising food supply and consequent generally better health has lead gradually to later marriages and falling birth rates. Fertility rates in most industrialized countries are below replacement level. The birthrate is lower today in every developing country than it was when Limits to Growth was published. Don't get me wrong. People still die in war. Children still die of starvation. The air still is polluted. The poor still are with us. The world is not perfect, and life is not rosy for all, but health and the standard of living are improving for more people than ever before. The challenge for you and me is to summon up our moral courage, to let loose our creativity, and to exercise our will so that peace may reign, the fruits of the earth and of mankind's labor can be distributed more equitably, and the chasm between rich and poor eliminated. For convenience, you may order this book from: amazon.com Borders
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