What Is a Futurist, Exactly?

In preparation for the April 9th, 2005, Super Keynote Extravaganza, NSA/New England Speaks! published the following interview with Terry.

What is a futurist, exactly? Futurists track relevant trends, analyze them, and think creatively about their direction and meaning.  They do not predict the future; they project the future.

How many years out do you typically forecast?  Five to fifty years is the usual range, though some trends  might go out a century or more.  Most of my futurist work is for specific consulting and speaking clients, so their needs drive my choice of timeframes.

The probability of a given projection occurring ranges from high for demographic patterns in the next half century, to medium for new technologies in the next quarter century, to low for disease patterns and social conditions a century from now.

What are some of the primary resources that you use in your research? I subscribe to ~75 journals and newsletters and regularly visit the Web sites of other futurists, which creates the backdrop to my thoughts about the future. 

For specific research projects, I use a six-step process:

1. put my existing thoughts into a coherent framework
2. identify the gaps
3. talk with futurist colleagues for ideas, data sources & inspiration
   
4. pursue additional data and insights from Web searches
5. draft my report or presentation
6. seek feedback from one or two futurists as a reality check on my conclusions

What sources would you recommend to our readers?  Three Web sites I recommend to newcomers to futurist thinking are:

	World Future Society - www.wfs.org
	Association of Professional Futurists - www.profuturists.com
	Ed Yardeni's web site - www.yardeni.com

Is the Popcorn Report a resource you use?  My futurist work is exclusively quantitative, e.g. demographics, economics, and energy.  Social issues lie outside the realm of my professional expertise, so the Popcorn Report has never been a resource for me.

What do you foresee as the major external opportunities and threats for speakers and consultants in the next decade?  Globalization is today's dominant megatrend, driving profound change in every sector of corporate, government, or nonprofit worlds.  Speakers and consultants who pay attention to these changes will move into spheres of greater relevance and value to their clients.  Those who do not will rapidly find themselves with stale ideas and ancient paradigms.  It's that simple!

What are the top few things that speakers and others in our industry need to do to prepare for the future?  In no particular order, the following come immediately to mind:

1. Visit your clients' "factory floors."  Their frontline workers are the first to experience change.
2. Challenge your existing thinking with every new speaking and consulting engagement.  It's both humbling and refreshing to learn anew and change your own mindset.
3. Read at least one journal outside your expertise.  New ideas are frequently spawned there.
4. Seek critical feedback from trusted colleagues.  Their advice is almost always worth taking.

Thank you for sharing your expertise with us.  Do you have any parting thoughts for our readers?  Come to the Super Keynote Extravaganza in April and learn more about future trends and some ways to analyze them.

Could your organization benefit from knowing how global trends affect your future?

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