G6B - A Population Milestone
© Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC

On October 12th, the world officially welcomed its 6 billionth living soul.

We entered the 20th Century with a world population of about 1.5 billion.  This quadrupled in this century.

On October 12th, 1999, newborn Adnan Navic of Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzogovina was officially and symbolically welcomed as the world's 6 billionth citizen by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

The United Nations report The World at Six Billion released on the same day gives a straightforward summary of the world's population over the past two millennia, as well as projections for the next two centuries.

Contrary to media hype and the myth of an "exponential population growth," the world's growth is slowing down.  Fertility rates have dropped around the world.  Indeed, only four countries - Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Ethiopia - have higher fertility rates today than in 1980, and the first three of these still are below the net replacement value of 2.1 children per woman.  The largest country in the world - China - has been below this value for more than a decade, principally due to its "one child" policy.

That the world's population growth is slowing down does not mean the population is shrinking.  Indeed, it will grow by 78 million this year.  Still, this is a lot lower than the 86 million added at the peak a dozen years ago.  This annual increase in population will continue to fall over the next two centuries until the world's population stabilizes near the beginning of the 23rd century at about 10 billion.

The following table, drawn from the UN report, illustrates the threshold points in global population:

Threshold population	Year achieved	Years since last threshold
1 billion	1804
2 billion	1927	123
3 billion	1960	33
4 billion	1974	14
5 billion	1987	13
6 billion	1999	12
7 billion	2013	14
8 billion	2028	15
9 billion	2054	26
10 billion	2183	129

It is a matter of debate whether and how the entire world's population can be fed, clothed, and housed adequately.  I am optimistic the Earth's "carrying capacity" will accommodate 10 billion people, but I also recognize the immense challenge inherent in welcoming another 4 billion to our planet in the next two centuries.  The International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo in 1994 seemed also to be modestly optimistic, adopting a plan for action focussed not on population numbers, but on these very basic human needs.