Joining us as Global Future Report's™ first guest columnist is Ruth Tearle, a respected strategist and change master from South Africa, giving us the benefit of her wisdom and thoughts on what lies ahead, not only on a global scale, but also in Southern Africa.

Global Strategic Trends

	The European Union – a powerful challenge to the US. The EU ‘s 12 member states have a population of 290 million. The Euro Zone accounts for more than 21% of the world GDP. In 2000, the Euro Zone’s exports amounted to 14.7% of world exports. From 2003, Poland, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, the 3 Baltic states, Cyprus and Malta will join the EU, increasing the population to 500 million.
	A struggle towards modernisation in the Middle East. A potential war, and subsequent peace in Iraq will result in a shift in power in the Middle East. Imagine what a Government of National Unity supported by the USA in Iraq could do to the entire Middle East? Imagine the impact this would have on oil supplies to the West? Imagine the power of a modern, democratic market driven Middle Eastern region?
	Economic growth in West Africa. Global oil firms and the USA, intending to reduce their dependence on the Middle East for oil are investing in  West Africa.  Angola and Nigeria currently supply 5% of US oil imports. By 2015 they will supply 25%. Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, Congo, Chad, Cote de Ivore and Cameroon are also benefiting from this shift away from oils supplies from the Middle East.
	Growth in Angola. The end of the Angolan war, and the need for African oil, has resulted in growth in Angola. Many South African companies including contractors, retailers and mining companies are setting up business in Angola.
	The Development of a United States of Africa. Countries in Africa are co-operating in a number of ways that point towards the development of a ‘United States of Africa.’ .The African Union was launched in 2002. NEPAD – the economic development arm of the African Union, has a number of developmental projects. One example is the development of the world’s largest national conservation park incorporating South African, Mozambican, and Zimbabwean game reserves.
	China, a future global player. As a result of continued economic reforms, China’s economy grew by 8% in 2002, and is predicted to grow by 8% in 2003. GDP was estimated at US$1.235 trillion in 2002. The Economist's The World in 2003 predicts that realized foreign direct investment will exceed $60 billion in 2003. China is hosting the Olympic games in 2008. $22 billion is being spent on developing infrastructure for the event.
	Global skills shortage. First world economies faced with aging populations are recruiting workers from developing economies.  Canada, Australia, and Germany have introduced a points system to encourage the immigration of skilled workers. South Africa now has a brain gain rather than a brain drain – it is gaining skills from both the first world economies and from the rest of Africa.
	From manufacturing oriented to knowledge based economies. Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore, are now facing competition from China in manufacturing. As a result they are transforming their economies from manufacturing oriented, high savings and high investment economies, to service oriented, knowledge based, consumer economies. They are focusing on developing knowledge based industries such as bio-tech, pharmaceuticals, computer software and entertainment.
	AIDS success stories. Success stories in containing the AIDS pandemic are starting to emerge in Africa as a result of  community organisations, private/public sector partnerships, and businesses working together in innovative ways. These include winning the support of traditional leaders; campaigns to change sexual behaviours; providing ART to the poor; training health care community workers; and providing home care to the sick. In Uganda, new infections have reduced from 30% to 6%. In South Africa, a recent study found that fewer 15-24 year olds are sexually active. The number using condoms has tripled. 84% of youths who were sexually active had only one partner in the last year and AIDS awareness was high.

South African Trends

	Increased exports. A combination of the weaker rand, and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) have resulted in increased exports to the USA. (The AGOA allows duty free exports to US markets for a number of South African products.)  By September, 2002, exports under AGOA had doubled to $571,830. Exports include cars, textiles and apparel, chemicals and machinery.
	Increased tourism in South Africa. Tourism to South Africa has increased as a result of the September 11 terrorist attacks in the USA. South Africa is now perceived as a 'safe' destination. It was also voted one of the top 10 preferred destinations by the British. During November, 2002, South Africa received approved destination status from China – this could result in 200 000 Chinese tourists visiting South Africa.
	Increased private public sector partnerships. Government organisations, such as hospitals, are privatizing or entering into partnerships with private sector organisations. E.g. the Inkosi Albert Luthuli Central Hospital in Durban has gone into partnership with medical, technology, logistics management and black empowerment companies to provide a quality hospital run as a high tech business.
	Socio-economic charters. A number of industries are developing socio-economic charters which aim at broadening black economic empowerment within the industry. This includes ownership, plus training and development initiatives aimed at supporting the ordinary worker and his community. The mining industry has developed the first charter. The financial services, IT and advertising industries are currently working out their own charters.

Technology Trends

Wi-Fi (802.11b) . Wi –Fi is a wireless networking system that links personal computers to one another via radio signals. Today laptop users can use wireless hotspots at airports, hotels and coffee shops to access the Internet. Cometa Networks plans to install 20,000 hotspots within the USA within 2 years. Networks like this could provide competition to cell phone companies who are producing new devices for accessing the internet via a cell phone.

Fuel cell technology. A fuel cell is a battery with enough power to support a car, electrify a city block, or power a laptop. General Motors and Anglo Platinum are investing in research into fuel cells.

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