Each year we highlight
some global trends for the future to stimulate your thinking and planning.
POPULATION
We officially welcomed the world's 6 billionth
citizen on October 12th, 1999.
In 2000 78 million more will be added to the world's
population.
95% of these new citizens will live in less developed
countries.
Each year the world's population growth will be
less than the year before.
By the end of the 21st Century, the population
will hit 9.5 billion.
It will stabilize in the late 22nd century at
10 billion.
FOOD
For five decades global food output has grown
0.5% per capita per year due to better seeds, fertilizers, and farming
techniques.
Today 18% of those living in developing countries
are undernourished, compared with 36% just three decades ago.
The biotechnology revolution in agriculture will
effectively eliminate hunger within the next generation.
HEALTH
Biotechnology will provide us with healthier lives
and and our children with healthier and longer ones.
As the world's economy grows, the water and sewage
disposal infrastructure in under developed countries will grow faster
than at any time in the history of the world, contributing at least
as much to the health of their populations as medicine will.
BUSINESS AND TRADE
The global economic output will continue to rise
3% annually.
Trade will grow at twice that rate until the mid-21st
Century.
Globalization will continue to accelerate.
The locus of growth in the 21st Century will be
the Pacific Rim.
By mid-Century China will have the largest economy
on Earth.
Before we enter the 22nd Century, India's economy
will be larger than China's.
e-COMMERCE
Information is a positive-sum game: when given
away, it multiplies.
Freely available information is an unstoppable
force for good.
The World Wide Web will transform all existing
industries and create new ones. Companies that do not adapt
will die.
Only Rip Van Winkle doesn't know that business
on the Internet is growing at a breathtaking pace. The University
of Texas at Austin estimates that in 1999 the Internet economy will
surpass the automotive industry in size and contribute $500 billion
to the American economy.
By 2002 the Internet economy will surpass publishing
and health care as the United States' largest economic sector.
Goods and services sold over the Net will double
each year for the next decade. 90% of these sales will be business-to-business.
The majority of the US's GDP growth in the future
will be due to the Web. (Hint: it is already!)
ENERGY
Global energy usage will grow 1.5% per year.
Asia is now the world’s largest energy producer
and consumer.
World oil production will remain flat for the
next quarter century.
One-third of human energy expenditure goes directly
towards transport.
Increased travel leisure time will be one of the
two primary drivers of energy growth.
Industrialization of lesser developed countries
is the other primary driver.
NATURAL RESOURCES AND COMMODITIES
As the global economy grows, the use of natural
resources per capita will diminish and substitutes will be found.
The two dozen most important commodities will
sell at lower prices in 2010 than they do today.
Gold will retain its value. (Hint: the real
value of gold is the same today as it was at the turn of the Century
and during the Great Depression.)
A corollary to the above is that real things will
be valued relative to other real things in a stable fashion over long
timeframes.
Check
out what we said about 2002 and beyond.
Check
out what we said about 2001 and beyond.
Check
out what we said about 1999 and beyond.
