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Each year we highlight
some global trends for the future to stimulate your thinking and planning.
POPULATION
Japan's and Europe's populations are mature.
Their workforces will decline rapidly during this decade, causing a temporary
crisis in providing for their senior citizenry. The United States
will face this phenomenon in the decade of the 2010s.
Global population will grow less each year than the
year before.
By 2050 the United States will be a "majority minority"
country. No racial or ethnic group will be a majority.
The United States will continue to be the world's
magnet for immigration, coming predominantly from Asia and Latin America
(principally Mexico).
TECHNOLOGY
Genetically modified rice will dramatically improve
nutrition in Asia's developing countries by 2005.
The biotech revolution will gradually shift its focus
from curing diseases to preventing them.
Nanotechnology is the next revolution and will find
applications this decade in labeling, health care, manufacturing, monitoring,
and transport.
The "last mile" difficulty in telecom will gradually
recede and usage of broadband communications will explode.
More varieties of computing devices will be available
this decade than in all the years up to now.
BUSINESS AND TRADE
China's capital investment in the manufacturing sector
will represent 25% of the world's total for the next decade.
Global economic output will rise 3% annually throughout
this decade, with Asia growing twice as fast, and trade will grow 6% annually..
Economic and political power will continue its voyage
from the United States to Asia, especially China and India.
Companies in all sectors will integrate e-Commerce
into their "traditional" operations. Companies that do not will
die.
This year or next the Internet economy will exceed
health care as the United States' largest economic sector.
The ubiquitousness of cost information will drive
commoditization of pricing into almost every economic sector, forcing
companies to streamline operations to remain competitive.
ENERGY
Global energy production will grow 3% per year until
mid-century, led by Asia, which is already the largest producer.
China's energy production will grow almost 5% until
2025.
Nuclear power will grow as a fraction of the world's
energy production capability.
Alternative power - solar, geothermal, wind - will
rise to 5% of the world's total by 2015.
POLITICAL
The news media bombard us daily with calamities everywhere.
Economic meltdown in Argentina. Coup in Venezuela last Friday and
undo-coup on Monday. Rigged Presidential election in Zimbabwe. Violence
in the Holy Land between the Israelis and Palestinians, all children of
Abraham. War on terrorism, focused on Osama bin Laden, and strengthening
homeland security in the United States.
While I am not professionally qualified to prognosticate
the outcomes of these conflicts and concerns, only Rip Van Winkle would
not take these into account in decision making and planning for any business
operating on a global scale. Having said this, I remain optimistic about
the long-range future of the planet and the growing well-being of its
inhabitants.
Check
out what we said about 2001 and beyond.
Check
out what we said about 2000 and beyond.
Check
out what we said about 1999 and beyond.
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