
	March 26th, 2003

Human Dimensions of the 21st Century
© Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC

The United Nations has revised its global population projections downwards, principally due to the impact of AIDS, which disproportionately affects Africa.

During the 20th Century the world's population grew from 1.5 billion to 6 billion. In 1999 the United Nations projected this would grow to 9.5 billion by the end of the 21st Century and to 10 billion near the end of the 22nd.

Last month the UN issued World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, which revises the1999 projections downward, principally due to the effects of the AIDS pandemic, whose greatest impact is in Africa.

It is useful to remember that "exponential population growth" is a myth! In truth, the population growth rate has been slowing since the late 1980s, and fertility rates have dropped around the world. The annual population increase will continue to fall until the world's population stabilizes near the beginning of the 23rd century at about 10 billion.

The following table, drawn from the UN report, illustrates the threshold points in global population:

Threshold population	Year achieved	Years since last threshold
1 billion	1804
2 billion	1927	123
3 billion	1960	33
4 billion	1974	14
5 billion	1987	13
6 billion	1999	12
7 billion	2013	14
8 billion	2028	15
9 billion	2054	26
10 billion	2183	129

New table of difference in last 3 yrs???

It is a matter of debate whether and how the entire world's population can be fed, clothed, and housed adequately. I am optimistic the Earth's "carrying capacity" will accommodate 10 billion people, but I also recognize the immense challenge inherent in welcoming another 4 billion to our planet in the next two centuries. The International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo in 1994 seemed also to be modestly optimistic, adopting a plan for action focussed not on population numbers, but on these very basic human needs.

For global, national, and regional population projections and their impacts, check out what we have said previously:

May 17, 2001	My, How We've Changed!
May 15, 2000	A World Full of People
Oct 18, 1999	G6B - A Population Milestone
Oct 5, 1998	Where Will the Workers Come From?
Mar 2, 1998	How Many of Us Will There Be?
Feb 9, 1998	Threats and Opportunities in a New Century
Jan 19, 1998	The Face of Our Future
Jan 5, 1998	Nurturing Human Capital

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Human Dimensions of the 21st Century © Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC

Human Dimensions of the 21st Century
© Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC