In the next 25 years
the American population will shift dramatically. Workers in
mid-career will be fewer than today, in spite of a general 25% in
overall population.
According to Bureau of the Census projections,
the population of the United States will grow 25% in the next 25 years.
The population east of the Mississippi will grow 16%; the Heartland
(the Mississippi to the Rockies) will grow at the national average;
the West will grow 45%. Four states - California, Texas, Florida,
and Washington - will account for half of the total growth.
Aging. By 2020 one in six will be senior
citizens, almost as many as there will be youngsters in K-12.
There will be a shortage of younger workers, so that as many employees
will be in the last decade of their careers as in their first.
The 25-44 year old portion of our workforce will shrink from what
it is today and even more so relative to the general population increase
in the next quarter century.
In the U.S. as a whole, the 25-44 year old group
will shrink slightly less than 1%. Regional differences will
be significant. In Washington State, this group will grow 16%
(on the surface this looks good, except that Washington's total population
will grow 45%. In Hawaii, this group will grow 29% (again pretty
good, except not as much as their 49% total population growth).
In Minnesota, on the other hand, the 25-44 year old group will shrink
7% (against a total population increase of 17%). No matter how
one cuts the pie, there will be a 20-30% differential in every state
between the growth rates of the mid-career employees and the total
population!
Workforce. Many companies today find
it difficult to attract and retain good workers. Sad to say,
but that is the good news! The bad news is that
the labor market will get worse with each passing year for the next
quarter century.
The immediate implication for any company is that
efforts really need to be put into place now to be a worker friendly
company, one the typical employee wants to make his or her own for
a long time to come. Increased budgets for training and professional
development will be the norm.
Diversity. Ours is the most diverse
country on earth. In the next quarter century, Hispanics will
overtake Blacks as the largest minority, and the Black, Asian, and
Hispanic populations will all grow faster than the non-Hispanic White.
Markets will be increasingly segmented.
Special efforts will be required to embrace, nurture, and prosper
from diversity, remembering always that creativity flourishes where
there is diversity of viewpoints, not where homogeneity reigns.
